Venezuela appeared to take a couple of steps closer to a recall referendum on the presidency of Hugo Chávez in recent weeks, but there is little chance that he will be removed by electoral means. This is not because, as major US and Venezuelan media have alleged, Chávez is a "dictator" or "antidemocratic" but because the opposition is unlikely to muster the votes that would be needed to remove him.

In fact, Chávez has played by the rules since he was first elected in 1998, as former President Jimmy Carter has noted. But Venezuela's opposition has tried several times to remove him by extralegal efforts, including a short-lived military coup in April 2002--initially supported by the Bush Administration--and a sixty-four-day oil strike and business lockout this past December to February.

August 19 marked the halfway point in Chávez's term, making him eligible for recall under Venezuela's new (2000) Constitution. The opposition promptly turned in petitions that, they claimed, held 3 million signatures, asking for a recall referendum. The Supreme Court selected a five-person National Electoral Council to oversee the process, and their choices were welcomed by both sides.

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