Los Angeles
So far, Villaraigosa has refused to retaliate with any negative campaigning. Instead he says, "My candidacy is simply about opening up the city. Not only to Latinos and African-Americans but to Israelis and Armenians and everyone who lives in LA." And he's banking on his long record of bipartisan deal-making in the State Assembly to win over reticent Republicans. Record-size parks and school bond measures were passed while he was Speaker, and with Republican support. And when bilingual education came under ballot-initiative attack, Villaraigosa went across the aisle trying--unsuccessfully--to fashion a compromise. A handful of key Republican legislative leaders have joined in endorsing his campaign.
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Though Riordan and Soboroff are ideologically closer to Hahn, Riordan endorsed Villaraigosa and Soboroff is expected to as well. The motivation is complex. Soboroff seemed to genuinely bond with Villaraigosa during their dozens of campaign forums and debates. And as for Riordan, well, there's little love lost between him and Hahn. Moreover, Riordan's top economic backer and power broker, builder Eli Broad, has been enthusiastically supporting Villaraigosa. And there's another reason for Riordan, who has recently been courted as a potential challenger to Democratic Governor Gray Davis, to go with Villaraigosa. "Dick Riordan is no dummy," says a local GOP consultant. "And he'd have to be not only dumb but deaf and blind not to see that Antonio embodies the rising hopes of Latinos. Whatever future Dick sees in politics, he sees the need for Latino support."
There's a strong anti-City Hall fault line that tears through the Valley, and it might just be wide enough to give Villaraigosa the edge. A number of leaders of the middle class and nearly all-white hillside homeowner clubs in the Valley have endorsed him--mostly because they identify James Hahn with an ossified and unresponsive downtown. And while Villaraigosa demonstrated impressive skills in navigating the inside channels of power in the state legislature, in Los Angeles he is viewed as the "outsider" candidate. "Right or wrong, Antonio is a man of action," says Gordon Murley, president of the upper-middle-class Woodland Hills Homeowners Organization. "I've worked with a lot of these politicians, and he's the only one of these guys I have worked with whose words match his actions. We might disagree sometimes, but Antonio is the only one you can trust and work with."
Given that these suburban homeowner associations have in the recent past been incubators for some virulent xenophobia and specifically anti-Latino sentiment, their support for Villaraigosa is particularly remarkable. "These Valley folks' supporting Antonio shows you just how much this city is changing," says the GOP consultant. "Even some of these groups that were warm to [the 1994 anti-immigrant] Prop 187 now recognize the inevitability of Latinos' gaining political power. Very quietly, this is a historic moment."
The other key front on which Villaraigosa must fight is in South Central's African-American community, where, his strategists figure, he needs to get 25-30 percent of the black vote in order to carry the city. And here he is at a disadvantage. Hahn's deceased father, Kenneth, represented this community for four decades as a powerful and nearly revered county supervisor. Kenny Hahn was so fierce a politician that he was rumored to carry a ceremonial shovel in the back of his car, always ready for a groundbreaking photo op. Twenty years ago his son James cashed in on the family name to become city controller, going on from there to serve four terms as city attorney. No accident that in the current mayor's race James Hahn made sure his ballot listing included his middle name--Kenneth.
Today the Hahn family name stands directly in the way of more deeply integrating African-American voters into the progressive Villaraigosa alliance. "It is an accident of candidacy that the African-American community is not a bigger part of this coalition," says Fernando Guerra.
But Hahn has used more than his name to woo black voters. His law-and-order rhetoric appeals to older African-American voters, who were his largest single bloc of supporters in the primary. Hahn also points out that he has sued the gun companies and has taken on the Feds for undercounting blacks in the 2000 census. And mostly, he argues, he is the trusted and seasoned local choice--one with no surprises.
To counter Hahn's advantages, Villaraigosa's campaign has brought on board some of the most talented organizers in South Central, including seasoned coalition-builder Anthony Thigpen. Meanwhile, a war of endorsements has erupted. Early on, Hahn picked up the backing of important local black elected officials, including Representative Maxine Waters. But Villaraigosa bagged the Rev. Jesse Jackson as well as LA's senior African-American councilman, Mark Ridley-Thomas. Thomas appeared at a mid-May press conference with nearly fifty other black community leaders and clergy who are supporting Villaraigosa, and they went right for Hahn's weak spot--his cozy relations as city attorney with the tainted LAPD. "I can't think of a single area where [Hahn] has offered the city any leadership in terms of building communities or justice," said the Rev. James Lawson, the city's undisputed top civil rights leader. "In the area of racial profiling and police abuse, where he is the head lawyer for the city, I have not seen any leadership."
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