The Power of Young Voters

The numbers are in: youth turnout increased by 3.4 million votes over 2004, for a turnout rate of at least 52 percent. As raw numbers go, this election marks the largest youth turnout since 1972, when the voting age was lowered to 18. In an election that saw a large increase in overall voter turnout, CIRCLE, a civic engagement think-tank, estimates that people under 30 accounted for 60 percent of that overall increase.

There's no question that Barack Obama overwhelmingly beat out John McCain among young voters. While the overall vote split was roughly 53 percent to 46 percent, among young voters Obama won in a landslide: 66 percent to McCain's 31. This split by age group is unprecedented, according to CIRCLE-- youth have historically deviated from the overall margin by only 1.8 percentage points.

While claiming that any one group is responsible for a win is near-impossible, there's no question that young voters comprised a major force no matter how you slice-and-dice the electorate. African-American and Latino voters also solidly backed Obama, and large numbers of those groups were also young voters. According to an analysis by James Carville, young voters were crucial to Obama's victory in toss-up states like Indiana, Ohio, Virginia and North Carolina. Mike Connery at Future Majority has a great set of maps representing the youth vote visually-- including one that shows how blue the country would be if only youth voted in 2004 and 2008. The difference between the two elections is striking.

Whether or not they single-handedly gave Obama the win, young voters have given Obama and the Democrats a mandate and redefined their role in American politics.

Comments (36)

1. The highest emotion.

   In a winding road you can find the light of a barrier, and always, when you try to forget her, a lovely emotion discovers in sips a delicate candle.

   Francesco Sinibaldi

   Posted by Sinibaldi at 11/08/2008 @ 4:23pm

2. 11th President - JAMES K. POLK

   22nd President - S. GROVER CLEVELAND

   33rd President - HARRY S. TRUMAN

   44th President - BARRACK H. OBAMA

   As much as change comes, it also makes continuation possible--

   55th President - _ _______ ___ _______

   Posted by hsuBfools at 11/08/2008 @ 4:53pm

3. I think that should about put an end to Mask's McGovern youth vote commentary.

   Posted by lvliberty1 at 11/08/2008 @ 4:52pm

   Given this comment comes from someone that that routinely uses emotion laden language like "infanticide" for abortion or who puts his "special sauce" on everything from the Constitution to the Koran, I am not sure that the "education" you have in mind is going to solve the problem.

   Posted by srjenkins at 11/08/2008 @ 5:28pm

4. Posted by lvliberty1 at 11/08/2008 @ 4:52pm | ignore this person | warn this person

   As you have regularly demonstrated, many of our more mature citizens don't know much of those subjects either.

   Posted by brunowe at 11/08/2008 @ 5:28pm

5. Allow me the pleasure of joining Jenkins and Brunowe.

   Larry, based on the overwhelming weight of evidence in the form of your litany of inane posts here, your grasp of world history --not to mention U.S. history-- is dodgy at best, and probably more accurately, vanishingly miniscule.

   In your defense, I actually like you to some degree, oddly enough, in spite of your ignorance and intransigence.

   Unlike Happy the Clown whose smugness is matched only by his ineptitude --both of which are overwhelming. The final nail in Happy's coffin of self condemnation is his professed whimsy that he missed out on the Vietnam killing fields by a few years.

   What an infolded blastocyst of worthless value he is.

   Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 5:45pm

6. Notice the key word in above passage --grasp.

   Even an encyclopedic "knowledge" of history is worthless if the facts are ordered in an upside down fashion so to speak --for example, Pastor Larry's insistence on the highest intent of his government and the Pentagon.

   To make it as simple as possible, history is probably best understood in the context of humanity as an evolving species with very similar general characteristics to related species in the animal kingdom.

   In that light, it should be fairly obvious that the overall arc of history is a struggle between subsets of humans attempting to seize control generally for the purpose of rewarding themselves. It is this innate impulse that documents from at least as far back as the magna carta on up through our nation's constitution have been constructed to ameliorate, at least to some small degree.

   We've still got a long way to go, clearly.

   Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 5:59pm

7. hey,

   where's mr. mask "youth vote = mcgovern" delta?

   he said he'd OWN UP!

   HEHEH!

   Posted by frosty zoom at 11/08/2008 @ 6:07pm

8. Yeah, a long way to go indeed.

   tinyurl.com/5cv63a

   Just jumped into my head as I posted above.

   Enjoy.

   ;-)

   Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 6:07pm

9. LARRY'S SPECIAL SAUCE!

   Just Add Blood and It's Ready.

   Posted by frosty zoom at 11/08/2008 @ 6:09pm

10. where's mr. mask "youth vote = mcgovern" delta?

    he said he'd OWN UP!

    HEHEH!

    Posted by frosty zoom

    He should be pilloried with regularity for that one for a few weeks at least.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 6:09pm

11. LARRY'S SPECIAL SAUCE!

    Just Add Blood and It's Ready.

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/08/2008 @ 6:09pm

    Blood sausage?

    Yeah Frosty, I already have the crow pie cooking in the oven as we speak!

    Posted by yutsano at 11/08/2008 @ 6:59pm

12. posted by Cora Currier on 11/08/2008 @ 3:48pm

    I'm sorry Ms. Currier, but the minority and youth vote would have never been able to put Obama in the WH on their own. They owe a very special thank you to all the older white folks who set aside their ambivelance and voted for him.

    Posted by ACook at 11/08/2008 @ 7:00pm

13. Hey Cook, what's shakin' baby?

    Anyhoo, slow night here so I'll post a hot little treat from the Belgian physics teacher and social activist writer, Jean Bricmont (from the Counterpunch website):

    A View From Europe Our Obama Problem

    By JEAN BRICMONT

    There are two factors to take into account in order to judge an election : what voters express by their vote and what the elected candidate is likely to do. In the case of the US presidential election, it would have been very depressing if the US population had elected McCain, after eight years of Bush. In fact, it is somewhat surprising that he still managed to get 48% of the popular vote, and that the Republican candidate did so well in states like Louisiana (remember Katrina ?).

    In that sense, the Left should welcome the Obama victory, not so much because he is "African-American", but because people who vote for him probably express a desire for change, and, in general, for progressive change : less war, a more balanced economic policy, and a more friendly attitude with respect to the environment.

    But the question of what the candidate will do is an entirely different matter. That depends on what he wants to do and what he can do. An American president has lots of power, but he is not a dictator and even a dictator would have to take into account relationships of forces. What Obama wants to do is not totally clear, but it is certain that he will not oppose the powers that be (Wall Street, big corporations, the pro-Israel lobby, etc.) that allowed him to win. He has at least demonstrated that much during the campaign.

    Of course, Obama has also to take onto account the pressure from below. But that is where the main problem arises : which pressure ?

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:19pm

14. If some Americans are irritated by the Obamania in the United States, they would be even more so if they looked at what goes on abroad, especially in Europe. There is nothing I find more depressing than to see youth in the French banlieues being "mobilized" for Obama, along with all of social democracy, show business and (enlightened) Zionists. I even saw some of those youths saying they will send a bullet-proof vest to Obama because they think that America will never allow an African-American to be president, as if somebody supported by Warren Buffett and, in fact, by most of the establishment, was a threat to America and in need of their help.

    In other words, the Obama problem is his extreme popularity in Europe, which is based both on his skin colour and on his "image". Because people don't understand how much race relations in the United States have actually changed, they see Obama's election as a sort of absolute miracle and, since the media present him as a strong alternative to Bush, and hardly report, for example, his plans to send more troops to Afghanistan, they think that he is far more progressive than he actually is.

    Of course, given the disastrous state of the Left worldwide, people desperately want to believe in something positive happening somewhere, and that only reinforces the illusions about Obama.

    Besides, there is hardly any Right in Europe that is anti-Obama. In fact the Right and most of current social-democracy love Obama because he will let them be openly pro-American again. Because the United States is less egalitarian (in an economic sense) than Europe, the social wage is smaller, there are weaker unions and fewer worker's rights, the European elite views the United States as some sort of capitalist paradise.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:19pm

15. The problem with Bush is that he was so brutal, arrogant, inefficient and stupid that it became increasingly difficult for them to openly express their admiration for the United States. But now, everything changes -- by shifting the attention from social issues to ‘'race'' , they can turn the tables around and make the United States look like THE progressive country of the West. The very pro-American, "New Left", French daily Libération has already suggested that the election of Obama is a lesson in democracy for France. Curiously, they cite long voting lines as evidence for this, while of course such lines in non-Western countries are taken as a sign of inefficiency or, worse, of the government's intention to dissuade people from voting.

    A final problem is that Obama's critics will automatically be suspected of racism. Already being "anti-American" is identified by Zionists with being antisemitic, so with a African-American president, we can expect the worst of both worlds.

    The question therefore is, how much will Obama be able to get away with, if and when his foreign policy clashes with the expectations of his leftist European supporters ? Because of the strength of the illusions, it is of course very difficult to combat them before he has done anything. The only hope is that people will take him, not at his word, because he has not promised anything, but at what they think his word is, and will react furiously when he betrays their (unfounded) hopes. Only that can prevent the United States from escalating its wars in Afghanistan, Iraq or elsewhere.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:19pm

16. But the deepest problem is that, sixty years after the end of WW2, Europeans still see themselves as somehow dependent on the United States. For their elites, the reasons are clear and understandable, but the rest of us, including a big part of the Left, still put too much of our hopes in expecting the US population to elect a "good prince", as they have just done with Obama. We should determine our foreign policy, and our social model irrespective of American choices and we should not be afraid of talking with other countries, like Russia, China or Iran without worrying what Uncle Sam thinks. Europeans often view the United States as a model of democracy, but there can't be anything more undemocratic than for us to determine our policies in a way that depends on elections in which we do not participate.

    The US population elects its president, not the Master of the Universe. This seems to be understood nowadays in Russia, Asia, Latin America and the Muslim world. Only in Europe do we still need to decolonize our minds.

    Jean Bricmont teaches physics in Belgium and is a member of the Brussels Tribunal. His new book, Humanitarian Imperialism, is published by Monthly Review Press. He can be reached at bricmont@fyma.ucl.ac.be.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:19pm

17. FZ, B_K...forgive me for not coming soon.

    Ms. Currier....I apologize.

    Your youth vote came through when it counted and CANNOT be discounted ever again.

    They helped elect Barack Obama and I am sorry I doubted you.

    My humble apologies for my cynicism.

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:29pm

18. Posted by hsuBfools at 11/08/2008 @ 4:53pm

    BTW, HSUB....

    you don't put a (.) period after the S in Harry S Truman. He had no middle name, just the initial.

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:30pm

19. I detect cynicism in that remark.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:31pm

20. Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:19pm

    Hey doll, how's it going? I just came back about 2 weeks ago. My husband was sick and I didn't want distract myself blogging, especially since my son is still in Afghanistan.

    Posted by ACook at 11/08/2008 @ 7:36pm

21. Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:31pm

    None....I am sincerely apologizing.

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:37pm

22. "set aside their ambivalence and voted for him."

    I think there are a few older white Americans who don't live in the United States of Alzheimers as Studs Terkel called it. And I think there are a few young Americans reasonably acquainted with our history who see in Obama, someone quite well versed in our history. Those youth voted accordingly.

    Posted by Sorelish at 11/08/2008 @ 7:37pm

23. Posted by Sorelish at 11/08/2008 @ 7:37pm

    I sure hope those few young Americans are acquainted with our history, but the real driving force behind the Obama victory was the older voters.

    Posted by ACook at 11/08/2008 @ 7:42pm

24. Hey doll, how's it going? I just came back about 2 weeks ago. My husband was sick and I didn't want distract myself blogging, especially since my son is still in Afghanistan.

    Posted by ACook

    Hope hubby okay.

    Son in Afghanistan --what's his service branch and mos?

    Not a good place to be generally speaking.

    I gotta go to a friend's place, but I'll look for your response.

    Catch ya on the flip side.

    ;-)

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:42pm

25. mask, that was beautiful ;+]

    NOW, back to cynicism.

    (to be honest, i had my doubts, too.)

    Posted by frosty zoom at 11/08/2008 @ 7:43pm

26. Posted by frosty zoom at 11/08/2008 @ 7:43pm

    If the youth vote helped put Obama over the top...call me "Michael Connery"...

    I'm a believer now.

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:49pm

27. None....I am sincerely apologizing.

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:37pm

    I detected genuine contrition there Kool. I just felt like giving Mask a gentle ribbing.

    BTW ACook, you're right, but this is more about acknowledging the youth vote more than anything. Maybe at some point someone will write an article about congratulating the older white voter for warming up to the idea of an Obama presidency. But for now I'm taking this article for what it celebrates, which is worth acknowledging.

    Posted by yutsano at 11/08/2008 @ 7:53pm

28. Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:42pm

    He's a marine and he's stationed there until April 09. He was supposed to come back at the end of January, but asked to be extended another 3 mos.

    Posted by ACook at 11/08/2008 @ 7:54pm

29. One post for the road.....

    Jarhead ayy?

    USMC.......U signed the MFin' Contract

    Unnecessary Shite and Mass Confusi0n

    Know it well....

    His mos? Not 0311 I gotta guess.

    For Maskot:

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=XfuBREMXxts

    Now I'm off......

    Later, dudes.

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:59pm

30. USMC.......U signed the MFin' Contract

    Unnecessary Shite and Mass Confusi0n

    Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:59pm

    Uncle Sam's Misguded Children. And man are they ever! I kid of course, one of my really good friends does this for a living. Of course he's more than a little insane, so maybe he's not the best example!

    ACook, your son was trained by the best to be the best. All we can really do at this point is pray. But if your son is a Dawg, right now he's doing what he loves. I'll make a point of thinking of him.

    Posted by yutsano at 11/08/2008 @ 8:04pm

31. Posted by b_kool_66 at 11/08/2008 @ 7:59pm

    Also in the finale of "Shrek" (the first one).

    Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 10:21pm

32. b_kool ..... love old Alice Cooper. Saw him once a LONG time ago (1974?) Egads, where does the time go.

    To everyone else ... keep an eye on alternative energy companies on the stock market (wind power & fuel cell entities would be my pick) Missed a really nice fuel cell IPO a few years back - still in grad school and didn't have anything easily liquid. Stuff went up 17x across a 3 day period. As everything is low now might be a good time to get in (assuming BO goes as green as advertised)

    Posted by leftofcenter at 11/08/2008 @ 10:23pm

33. Posted by leftofcenter at 11/08/2008 @ 10:23pm

    Read something in TIME I believe it was about stocks that are prepared to do well under an Obama administration, and two industries they mentioned are construction (for the infrastructure Obama has planned) and alternative energy. So it may definitely be a solid investment. Though personally the demands of the investment class share some of the blame for the current mishegas we're in right now.

    Posted by yutsano at 11/08/2008 @ 10:50pm

34. according to the numbers, there was not a huge increase in turnout over 2004 . in 2004, just over 121 million votes were cast for president, while the current number for 2008 stands at just under 123 million. given all the new people registered to vote this year, that should translate to a lower percentage of registered voters voting, and assuming the number presented here is correct (youth turnout up by 3.4 million), it would appear that the youth vote accounted for more than the entirety of the increase in voters. since we know that there was an increase among other groups (middle-aged blacks, for example), it must be the case that there were fairly significant declines in voter turnout amongst others.

    in my opinion, these numbers don't quite add up. we saw the lines with our own eyes, heard voting officials across the country say they'd never seen anything like it, and read estimates of "over 131 million" by experts in newspaper articles. the "over 131 million" number was given again in newspapers on november 5 as the estimate of voter turnout.

    i have a feeling that voter turnout was actually significantly higher this time than in 2004. i have a hard time believing that fewer people voted in ohio this time, especially since there was sun as opposed to rain & supposedly enough voting machines this time around.

    what are your thoughts? if the youth vote really increased by 3.4 million, then that means that the non-youth vote, on the whole, declined in absolute numbers, in spite of the massive registration drives, the historic nature of the contest,and the financial crisis (along with all the other crises) which fixed everyone's attention on politics this year. i don't buy it.

    Posted by jasonrhodes at 11/10/2008 @ 10:02am

35. Posted by Mask at 11/08/2008 @ 7:29pm

    Nicely done, sir.

    Posted by cka2nd at 11/10/2008 @ 10:04am

36. Posted by cka2nd at 11/10/2008 @ 10:04am

    No, no. No compliments needed or deserved.

    And I was happy to be proven wrong.

    Posted by Mask at 11/10/2008 @ 12:42pm