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RedditLast week the Middle East Policy Council held an interesting and important discussion of what to do about Iran. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to attend it, but the MEPC has helpfully posted the transcript of that event. Led by the astute Chas Freeman, a former American ambassador to Saudi Arabia, the discussion was a very thoughtful effort to analyze the consequences of an American and/or Israeli attack on Iran. If you have the time, read it.
An important aspect of the idea of war with Iran is how it would be viewed by the Arab Gulf states and Iraq. Freeman, who is well connected in the Arab Gulf, made this rather scary point, which I haven't heard anywhere else:
Because logistics require cooperation from countries in the region, they cannot avoid a measure of complicity with a U.S. operation against Iran, and the word in the region is that Iran has already told Qatar, for example, that if there is such an attack, the Qatari regime is toast.
Qatar, of course, is where the U.S. Central Command has its local headquarters.
Jean-Francois Seznec, a professor at the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies at Georgetown University, goes on to suggest a point of possible conflict between Iran and Qatar involving huge gas fields. Qatar and Iran are two of the world's largest powers in natural gas. Says Seznec:
The Iranians are very worried about the enormous development on the Qatar North Dome Field. You know, it's the largest gas field in the world. Qataris are developing it like crazy right now. And the Iranians are upset by that because they own half of that field, and they feel that the Qataris are really stealing their gas at this point. And they've mentioned that, because they have not been able to develop that field for lack of money, mostly, and lack of technology from overseas.
Seznec suggests that oil would go to $300 a barrel if Iran is attacked, and gasoline to $10 a gallon here at home.
Concludes Freeman:
It's fairly obvious that [military] strikes won't solve the problem, will create additional problems, would lead to a wider threat against American and other interests, and would lead to a war with no obvious end. But aside from that, a military strike on Iran is a splendid idea. There is a chance in the next six months that we will find out just how splendid it is. For my part, I hope not.
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>>>It's fairly obvious that [military] strikes won't solve the problem, will create additional problems, would lead to a wider threat against American and other interests, and would lead to a war with no obvious end. But aside from that, a military strike on Iran is a splendid idea.<<<
If 70% of Americans think it is a BAD idea, 62% of American Jews think it is a BAD idea, and 64% of Israeli Jews think it is as BAD idea, why is an invasion of Iran even being discussed?
Isn't America supposed to be a democracy?
Posted by Metteyya at 07/02/2008 @ 8:34pm
Posted by libzRfreaks at 07/02/2008 @ 8:13pm
Get your disses straight; left wing extremists do not fear black helicopter.
Right wing whack jobs are the ones that freak out over stuff like that.
Moreover, when was the last time you actually met a Marxist?
Posted by skeletonman at 07/02/2008 @ 8:34pm
Iran has so much power through oil exports it's ridiculous. The very concept of attacking Iran is ridiculous as long as we are dependent on oil. If we attack them, we will be solely resposible for the whole sale destruction of the American economy. All Iran would have to do is bomb it's own oil lines and then bomb Qatar's and then just sit back and watch the world economy collapse on itself. Good times.
"MORE MARXIST BLACK HELECOPTER CONSPIRACY THEORIES....
Posted by libzRfreaks at 07/02/2008 @ 8:13pm "
Where do you even get your facts Libz? Do you just make them up or do you actually read something? Can you please post a link to something that disproves what is being stated?
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/02/2008 @ 8:44pm
Se la Vie (?sp?)
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/02/2008 @ 8:41pm
It's C'est la vie.
I agree with you we should not agitate Iran and yes if they attack anyone we should respond. However all of these people calling for a preemptive strike against Iran don't even know how much of a hornet's nest they are stirring up and how much of a global effect this could have. It could end up putting the entire world into a horrible depression but people blindly calling for the invading of Iran because they at one time did research to see if they could get a nuke and then stopped that research.
Posted by Cccomfo1 at 07/02/2008 @ 8:49pm
Mr. Dreyfuss, where are you finding these people? You're beginning to sound and write like John Nichols. For every day no one is impeached as his book predicts, the sales start to slump. So, what does he do in a pinch? He starts writing useless articles on impeachment again.
By any chance have you written any books on big oil or the ME crisis?
Posted by ACook at 07/02/2008 @ 9:57pm
if Iran attacks Israel in 2009 or 2010?
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/02/2008 @ 8:41pm
what are you smoking?
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/02/2008 @ 10:25pm
Results 1 - 10 of about 11,200 from thenation.com for "posted by mask". (0.25 seconds)
i don't think he's been erased
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/02/2008 @ 11:20pm
holy cow!
mask has been erased!
all those posts, goneified.
oh, mighty electrons, do tell us why!
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/02/2008 @ 11:32pm
and rio bravo, too.
gone!
THAT IS NOT VERY DEMOCRATIC!
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/02/2008 @ 11:32pm
holy cow!
mask has been erased!
all those posts, goneified.
oh, mighty electrons, do tell us why!
Posted by frosty zoom at 07/02/2008 @ 11:32pm
I told you that yesterday.
Somebody at the Nation is a scumbag.
KVH owes an explanation for that kind of BS.
Posted by Benchrest at 07/02/2008 @ 11:56pm
Posted by 2HAPPY at 07/03/2008 @ 12:37am
It is indefensible. There is no plausible excuse for such behavior. Screw them. The gloves come off.
Posted by Benchrest at 07/03/2008 @ 12:43am