Virginia's Young Voters on a Roll

August 22, 2008

Barack Obama hit the ground in Virginia this week, with stops across the state suggesting that his campaign sees this once solidly red state as a battleground. 

At a state level, Virginia is riding a Democratic wave. Governor Tim Kaine and Senator Jim Webb took office in 2005 and 2006 respectively, and former governor Mark Warner is now running for Senate. Recent polls show him leading his opponent, Republican Jim Kilgore, by more than 20 percentage points. (Kaine, Webb and Warner have also all been named as potential running mates for Obama-- though Kaine is now on many short-lists for the spot). 

There are other promising numbers for Obama in Virginia: the number of young people registered to vote in that state has increased enormously. From January to August, more than 200,000 new voters have registered; more than two-thirds of them are under 35. Virginia's young population is increasing, and it has several large in-state universities, so this number is likely to keep growing as schools open and on-campus voter-registration drives begin. 

A New Era for Affirmative Action?

August 12, 2008

A newly trenchant debate on affirmative action is breaking into the presidential race, with ballot measures pending in Colorado, Arizona and Nebraska that seek to end the factoring of race, ethnicity, or gender in government funded programs. On a national level, the ballot initiatives have candidates and activists raising questions about the future look of affirmative action.

For Obama---whose candidacy has walked the fine line between being all about race, given his historic position as the first African American presidential nominee, and trying to position himself as transcending race--the question of affirmative action is particularly personal. During his time at Harvard, Obama reportedly stated that he had "undoubtedly benefited from affirmative action," and that "the success of the program speaks for itself." In terms of policy, Obama has rejected measures that would ban affirmative action or end existing equal opportunity initiatives.

However, he commented in July that "We have to think about affirmative action and craft it in such a way where some of our children who are advantaged aren't getting more favorable treatment than a poor white kid who has struggled more," and in April said that his daughters, coming from an affluent African American family, should not benefit from affirmative action. In other words, he'd like affirmative action to be more about class and less about race.

Don't Ask, Don't Tell On the Campaign Trail

June 10, 2008

A year ago, in June 2007, all the Democratic candidates vowed that as president they would lift "Don't Ask, Don't Tell," (DADT) Bill Clinton's messy 1993 compromise on gay men and women serving in the military. By banning gay people from serving openly, the policy was intended as a "loophole" through which gay people could serve without ruffling the feathers of conservatives. As young activists at an initiative called Harvard Right to Serve put it, "you can be gay in the military...only until someone finds that you are gay in the military." Hillary Clinton broke with her husband's policy in 1999, and both she and Barack Obama made the repeal of the law a cornerstone of their message to LGBT voters.

Unsurprisingly, John McCain has remained on the Republican side of the issue, claiming last year that "It's working, so leave it alone. Generally, overall, it's working....And right now we've got the best military we've ever had - the most professional, best trained, equipped and the bravest. And so I think it's logical to leave this issue alone. I really do."

In fact, DADT has resulted in over 11,000 dismissals from the military since its enactment. Besides its inherently discriminatory nature, DADT also creates an atmosphere where harassment goes unreported, and claims that allowing openly gay people to serve would lessen military capacity have been debunked by the British, Canadian and Israeli militaries, all of which allow gays to serve.

Don't Count Out the Youth Surge

June 2, 2008

As the clock winds down on Clinton's chances to claim the Democratic nomination, her arguments to superdelegates omit a few key facts. Last week her campaign sent out a letter to undecided superdelegates detailing why she is more electable than Barack Obama in the general. The letter cited her strong support among seniors, women and Latinos, and claimed that each of those groups have seen substantial surges in participation in the primary cycle.

Noticeably absent from the memo was any mention of young voters, the group, along with African-American voters, that Clinton has least managed to crack. While it's to be expected that Clinton wouldn't mention a glaring flaw in an argument about electability, the letters' statistics are misleading about the way that specific demographics could affect the race in November. For one, the political statistician "Poblano," whose predictions have been extremely accurate in the primaries so far, claims that Clinton grossly overstates the increase in participation by older voters in the primaries. Clinton's letter claims that:

"The increase in participation in the primaries has been driven by core groups favoring Hillary, led by women, Latinos and older voters...Overall, more than 22 million Democratic primary voters were over the age of 45 this year, as compared to less than 10 million who voted in the 2004 Democratic primaries."

Vets, Obama, Pressure McCain on GI Bill

May 21, 2008

What's been dubbed the 21st century GI Bill passed the House last week--legislation that would increase the amount of money given to returning vets to cover tuition, books, and a living stipend -- in short, a return to the spirit of the original post World War II GI Bill. Today, soldiers receive only a fraction of the benefits that they used to, and the college costs covered by the military are usually only enough to cover about 60 percent of a public education, and far less at a private institution.

After Congress' Memorial Day holiday, the bill heads to the Senate, where, despite heavy pressure from what is supposedly one of his core constituency, veterans, John McCain is still wavering. Back in March, he claimed not to have read the bill yet, then he announced he was worried that it would affect retention rates, an echo of the Bush Administration's opposition to the bill. Senators Jim Webb and Chuck Hagel, the bill's sponsors and veterans themselves, both dispute that claim.

Supreme Court Upholds Voter ID Law

April 28, 2008

Earlier this winter, the Supreme court debated whether or not Indiana could require voters to present a state-issued photo ID at the polls. Today, one week before Indiana's primary, they upheld Indiana's law, ruling that it is not an unconstitutional burden on the right to vote.

As Justice David Souter said in his dissenting opinion, the law "threatens to impose nontrivial burdens on the voting rights of tens of thousands of the state's citizens."

Why the Democrats Need All Young Voters

April 27, 2008

Youth turnout in Pennsylvania couldn't give Barack Obama the edge he needed last week. Obama himself said in a radio interview Wednesday that, "really, if we had a demographic problem in Pennsylvania, it was that it's an older state than a lot of states."

But the youth vote isn't monolithic-- and that showed in Pennsylvania. Clinton beat Obama 52-48% among young whites, according to CNN exit polling. The Politico's Ben Smith outlines several possible reasons for this, among them racial and cultural politics following the scandals over Obama's pastor and the infamous "bitter comment." Counties with universities remained Obama strongholds, pointing to a possible student/non-student divide.

This result sent a signal to both campaigns that they must engage non-college youth if they want to count on their support in the general election.

McCain Gets Hip (Replacement)

April 18, 2008

While Obama was brushing the dirt off his shoulders from the ABC debate, John McCain's been busy trying to prove he is hip beyond his 71 years. McCain said Tuesday at Villanova University that he will "contest every vote of every young American."

Add this to a laundry list of groups whose vote McCain claims to be "contesting"-- workers, African Americans, Hispanics--all while toeing the conservative party line. Quite a feat.

So how will McCain contest young voters? He told Fox News earlier this month that: "It's pretty clear that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have energized the younger voters and I believe I have and I believe I've got to compete on that grounds too. That's why I go on shows that young people watch." This comes a few days after pseudo-reality show star Heidi Montag endorsed McCain, and he assured her, "I never miss an episode of 'The Hills.'"

Can Young Voters Swing Pennsylvania?

April 11, 2008

Pennsylvania is one of the oldest states in the union, with the third highest number of voters over 65. But it's also got almost 700,000 college students, something the Obama campaign is well aware of. If he can capture the same sort of massive turnout that helped propel his victory in Iowa, he could close Clinton's gap.

The Obama campaign has been working hard in Pennsylvania: they ran "Spring Break Internships" in March, bringing in college students from around the country to Pennsylvania for voter outreach. He has an enthusiastic cadre of young supporters in the state too: Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey credits his teenage daughters with pushing him to publicly endorse Obama.

So Obama will likely be helped by the fact that many of the non-partisan voter outreach efforts in Pennsylvania have targeted college campuses, such as HeadCount and the United States Student Association. This weekend the Hip Hop Summit Action Network, which has historically had great success turning out young African American Voters, has focused the bulk of its efforts in Pennsylvania, and will hold a get-out-the-vote rally at Temple University in Philadelphia just before the April 22 primary.

McCain Gets Flak on the New GI Bill

April 6, 2008

It would seem like a no-brainer for any presidential candidate: a bill, introduced by two veterans, with the support of veterans associations around the country, that increases the opportunity for vets to go to college.

Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have co-sponsored a bill put forth last fall by Jim Webb of Virginia and Chuck Hagel, Republican from Nebraska, called the "Post-9/11 Veterans' Educational Act," that is a return to the spirit of the World War II GI Bill, with enough funding such that every returning veteran is guaranteed a quality education.

The bill, put forth as the first step in making "A 21st Century GI Bill," would give veterans who qualified tuition for a full four years of college, as well as a stipend for books and living expenses. Currently, veterans are covered by the Montgomery GI bill, which requires that troops pay $100 a month during their service, which then qualifies them for around $800 per month for college tuition. As Webb and Hagel pointed out in an op-ed last year, that barely covers courses and books at many community colleges, let alone a state school or private university.